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Write an Evidence-Based Decision Memo

Compare options against explicit criteria, surface uncertainty, and recommend a reversible next step.

Best for: Founders, product leads, and operators

Prompt template

Write a concise decision memo for the following choice.

DECISION
[What must be decided, by whom, and by what date?]

OPTIONS
[List the real options, including "do nothing" when relevant.]

OBJECTIVES AND CRITERIA
[List criteria, weights if known, and non-negotiable constraints.]

EVIDENCE
[Facts, costs, customer data, technical findings, and sources.]

UNCERTAINTIES
[Known unknowns and assumptions.]

OUTPUT
1. Decision statement
2. Context and why the decision is needed now
3. Option comparison table: benefits, costs, risks, reversibility, evidence
4. Recommendation and decisive reasons
5. Strongest argument against the recommendation
6. Assumptions that would change the decision
7. Smallest reversible next step
8. Owner, deadline, and success/failure signals

Do not manufacture certainty. Label facts, estimates, and judgments separately. If evidence is insufficient, recommend the cheapest experiment that would reduce the most important uncertainty.

Customize before using

  • Name a decision owner and deadline.
  • Include the real cost of delay.
  • Separate reversible and irreversible consequences.

Result quality checks

  • Recommendation follows the stated criteria.
  • Counterargument is represented fairly.
  • Next step reduces a named uncertainty.

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